[Classic] Odds of successfully pulling a Missed Me!

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Tinhorn Huckster
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[Classic] Odds of successfully pulling a Missed Me!

#1 Postby Tinhorn Huckster » Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:00 am

Hey there, guys! So, Missed Me! requires two pairs to pull off, right? Assuming a roll of 4d8 or 4d10, what are the odds of successfully casting Missed Me! without incurring in Backlash? That is, can I rely on it as a defensive Hex?
Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?

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Noshrok Grimskull
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#2 Postby Noshrok Grimskull » Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:22 am

I'm just going by standard Poker odds here, drawing 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards.

The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%.
But that's not accounting for Jokers and the chance of Raises (i.e. more cards to build your hand from).
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Tinhorn Huckster
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#3 Postby Tinhorn Huckster » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:20 am

Noshrok Grimskull wrote:The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%.


Wow. That's... Quite low, actually. I think I'll pass on the Hex, then.
Thanks!
Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?

RJack
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#4 Postby RJack » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:31 am

Try here.

Odds of 2 pair (or better) from different hand sizes with two jokers in the deck:

#Cards
5 12.7%
6 28.5%
7 46.8%
8 71.2%
9 87.1%

rungok
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#5 Postby rungok » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:41 am

I'd suggest taking bodyguard instead. That one starts with Ace and works its way up. It's not as fancy as preventing someone from shooting you, but it DOES allow you to absorb wounds if you get shot.

That's also got the benefit of being more subtle. You're just really tough seeming, not unnaturally deflecting bullets out of the air.

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#6 Postby ogbendog » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:28 pm

When I ran DLC, Bodyguard was the defensive hex of choice.

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Tinhorn Huckster
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#7 Postby Tinhorn Huckster » Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:39 pm

Hmmm... But is Bodyguard's protection value up to snuff?
Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?

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#8 Postby ogbendog » Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:17 pm

depends who your foes are.
if you are facing someone that does a lot of damage, Missed me might be better

against pistols and such, Bodyguard was better.

I'm AFB right now, but I seem to recall that MissedMe you sustain, but bodyguard lasts until it wears off?

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Tinhorn Huckster
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#9 Postby Tinhorn Huckster » Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:16 am

I see. Guess I'll take Bodyguard, then.
Thanks a lot for the help, everyone! :-)
Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?


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